How Much Oil and Coal are Left?

In 2008, the USGS estimated that only 77 billion tons in the Gillette coalfield were actually economically recoverable. This was a dramatic downgrade from earlier estimates.

If our coal consumption does not increase from current levels and if the Powder River Basin takes over from Appalachia soon (next decade or so, which is very likely), we may be left with less than a 100 year supply of coal.

If our coal consumption increases, you're looking at running out sooner. And if we open ports on the West Coast to export it to China, you'll see it disappear at very fast rate.

@ FrameMaker- There are a few scenarios where coal energy use could be extended beyond the 200 year mark. Natural gas production could increase sharply as some of the new fields come on line, and fields are exploited in the Caspian Sea.

If the developing world increases the adoption of fluidized bed and pulverized boilers, then efficiency will be significantly increased. If this increase in efficiency outpaces demand, then the production would drop, causing the R/P ration to rise.

Coal reserves are still very important in energy, even though it is a very dirty form of energy. The reserves will likely last much longer than peak oil, so in a sense it is a necessary stopgap until other technologies can be fully developed and marketed, and global consumption can be reduced.

@ Anon42587- You bring up some very true points about the amount of coal left. The most recent measures of coal reserves I have seen show that there is about a 192 years’ worth of coal reserves left in the world (from BP Global Reports 2004). Compare this to the R/P ratio of 233 years from BP in 2001, and it illustrates how fast and drastically coal reserves change by year.

We used up 42 years of coal in 3 years because coal production increased, proven reserves decreased or a combination of the two. If energy consumption patterns start to stabilize as predicted in some of the more optimistic energy production growth scenarios, then there is approximately only 150 years of coal left. If you are a pessimist, you could easily postulate that coal will run out in approximately 100-110 years. Clean coal is only a stopgap, and coal suppliers know it. Big steps need to be taken to reduce consumption if we want to have any chance of extending coal reserves to 250 years.

I'd suggest a more detailed addressing of the amount of coal. Like oil, try adding the pessimistic view. The 250 years worth of US coal is merely an educated guess. And if we all turn to using more, it'll be less. In the last few years, China went from an exporter to importer of coal. India is in the same situation. The US is now exporting more and more coal. So much for 250 years worth.

In addition, the quality of the remaining coal is declining. The US has less than 20 years worth of coal in their existing operating mines.